Lack of progress in decarbonising heat and transport will see the UK miss its 2020 renewable energy targets, according to National Grid.
The system operator published its latest Future Energy Scenarios this morning. Under the most optimistic scenario, the target of 15% of energy from renewable sources will be met in 2022. Under the least optimistic scenario, that target will be reached in 2029.
National Grid said gas would continue to play a major role in power generation for the foreseeable future, with shale gas production potentially ramping up from 2021. It also stated that gas will continue to be the predominant form of domestic heating, with 70% of homes continuing to use gas as a primary heat source in 2030.
Meanwhile, Grid sees potential for up to 18GW of electricity storage, mainly batteries, by 2040, most of which is connected to the distribution network. Within the next ten years, the system operator also sees the maximum contribution from demand-side response standing at 5.7GW.
In the short term, National Grid said it would review its current set of schemes to allow storage providers to offer bundled services. That review is scheduled to commence in autumn 2016.
According to its predictions, National Grid expects Lithium-ion battery cell costs to halve in the next three years, from around US$400/kWh to $200kWh by 2019.
See the full document here.
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