New analysis from the Renewable Energy Association (REA) shows that renewable electricity generation will become the clear economic winner over natural gas by 2028 to 2029, even after accounting for full system costs including grid, transmission, storage and balancing.
Unlike traditional Levelised Cost of Energy (LCOE) comparisons, the REA’s modelling incorporates the real-world costs of scaling renewables, providing policymakers with a comprehensive assessment of long-term electricity strategy. The projected 2028-2029 turning point occurs without factoring in additional benefits such as improved energy security, reduced exposure to volatile international gas prices, cleaner air and lower carbon emissions, all of which further strengthen the case for renewables.
Jobs and economic Impact
Between 2024 and 2030, the Clean Power 2030 pathway is projected to create nearly 145,000 new jobs across engineering, electrical installation and maintenance. These high-value roles strengthen domestic supply chains in the United Kingdom and redirect spending from imported fuels into local industries.
A critical 2028 milestone
REA modelling shows that from 2028 onwards, the financial benefits of Clean Power 2030 begin to accrue across the wider economy. To maintain momentum, the REA urges continued policy stability and investor confidence, alongside interim measures to reduce electricity bills until the economic dividends of renewable investment are fully realised.
Continued government commitment and interim measures, including potential reductions to green levies and value added tax, are recommended to manage near term electricity costs. Stable policy will support investment and deliver clear economic benefits.
Two scenarios were modelled. Clean Power 2030 involves annual investment of around forty billion pounds to scale renewable infrastructure and reduce unabated gas use to below five per cent. In contrast, the No New Renewables scenario maintains current renewable capacity to 2040 and relies on natural gas to meet additional demand, resulting in lower initial costs but higher ongoing expenses through increased fuel imports.
The modelling assumes flat natural gas prices for five years. If prices fall by twenty five per cent between 2025 and 2030, the economic advantage of renewables, excluding jobs, is delayed by only one year. Additional benefits such as reduced exposure to volatile gas markets, improved energy security and environmental gains further strengthen the case.
Please see the full analysis here.
