Lucy Dolton, Renewable Generation Lead, Cornwall Insight
When discussing developments in the renewables market, much of the focus rightly falls on the new capacity required to meet future targets. However, there exists an elephant in the room that stands at nearly 30GW high – that is the existing renewable generation capacity which will begin reaching the end of its current subsidy arrangements from March 2027.
While often receiving less focus than new-build generation, the role that existing generation can, and more arguably should, play in reaching future renewable capacity and Clean Power targets is an opportunity that should not be overlooked.
Since its introduction in 2002 the Renewables Obligation (RO) scheme has supported ~30GW renewable capacity that remains online today, representing around half of all renewables capacity on the system. This includes around 12GW of Onshore Wind, 7GW of Offshore Wind, and 7GW of Solar PV. The earliest RO-accredited sites will start to roll off their subsidy from as soon as March 2027, with the latest-dated projects receiving support up to March 2037.
For RO sites not held under long-term equity ownership, the end of subsidy support may coincide with the maturity of their initial debt financing. As a result, it could promote transaction activity, as asset owners consider future commercial options. These future commercial options could look very different to those available some 20 years ago when they received their initial subsidy accreditation, given how much the market has changed over that time.
Based on the current market, decisions around future route to market options enabled through site repowering and/or refurbishing could include utility and corporate Power Purchase Agreements (CPPAs) as well as entry to the Contract for Difference (CfD) scheme as a repowered site, though repowering options for the CfD currently remain exclusive to onshore wind. At the complete other end of the spectrum, some sites may no longer be commercially viable in the absence of RO subsidy. It is clear that there will be no one-size-fits-all approach; the most appropriate commercial solutions may not exist for certain generators, and indeed the policy to support these may not either – though many would argue that this policy direction is long overdue.
Changes to the Electricity Generator Levy, proposals for a Wholesale CfD and potential RO scheme reforms involving Fixed Price Certificates could all influence the options available to these assets, both those rolling off their RO subsidy imminently and those accredited for longer, but there is not one set path for generators to follow. In a rapidly evolving market and when considering the amount of financing and investment decisions that lie behind these sites, clarity over commercial options, driven by policy intent, is only becoming more urgent.
Successfully navigating route to market and financing options amidst significant policy and regulatory changes means now more than ever, robust forecasting, insights and market discussion are key in planning for business success.
These are among the challenges that will be explored at CI Live 2026, Cornwall Insight’s annual conference. Bringing together senior voices from across the energy value chain, the event will cut through the noise and focus on what matters: delivery, investment, customers and market evolution.
Delegates will hear from leading organisations including Energy UK, Octopus Energy, EDF Energy, E.ON, Evolve Energy, Uswitch and Citizens Advice, with perspectives across policy, retail, generation, flexibility, consumer advocacy and investment.
The agenda will address several of the sector’s most pressing priorities, including:
- Unlocking consumer-led flexibility at scale
- Accelerating the electrification of heat and transport
- Turning ambition into practical delivery
- Navigating connections reform and routes to market
- Building fairness and trust in supply markets
- Supporting maturing markets for flexibility providers
Register for the conference and find out more about the agenda here: CI Live 2026 use code TheEnergyst20 to get 20% off your ticket.
