Balancing market forecasting that is ‘more accurate than National Grid’


The energy market has been getting progressively more complex over the past decade with the amount of individual generation units producing power increasing, intermittency introducing new challenges, time of use tariffs being promoted by suppliers and an enormous amount of smart technology being installed on the system. All of this has resulted in a data explosion making it more difficult than ever to navigate the energy market.

What makes managing this even harder is the fact that energy market data is remarkably disparate, with live data, spreadsheets and PDFs scattered over multiple websites. There is still a large amount of inaccurate data that must be checked. Traders must then integrate the data they’ve managed to gather in the window before trading closes. It’s a complex process that hampers clear analysis and decision making.

In response to this problem we developed LCP Enact which is a new data integration platform that brings all this information together into one place, cleaning it, correcting it and presenting it in a manner that allows instant analysis and interpretation of market activity.

Some views are rooted in trader workflows to make real-time decision making much simpler. An example of this is the BM dashboard, a visual representation of the BM where users can simulate National Grid actions and identify locational constraints through a clear, interactive map. Other screens are aimed at analysts and managers to allow instantaneous benchmarking and performance monitoring of your units against the market.

The recent surge in capabilities of data science has allowed much more sophisticated and accurate forecasting to take place. Within LCP Enact, we have developed a cutting-edge algorithm to forecast the Net Imbalance Volume (NIV) of the system for the next six hours, on a real-time basis. As this calculation is live, if any market movements occur our view of imbalance will be updated. The result is a forecast that is 86 per cent accurate in predicting system direction 30 minutes ahead of delivery, compared with National Grid’s own forecast at 59 per cent.

We see the market continuing to get more complex as it becomes more interconnected with even more varied market participants joining. Getting your data integrated, ensuring your team can focus their time on what matters, and taking advantage of cutting-edge technology to forecast market changes is the best way to navigate the BM successfully.

Find out more here.


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