Falling demand on the transmission system and the start of the government’s insurance policy for power have given National Grid greater headroom over winter.
The transmission system operator (SO) has forecast a margin of 10 per cent of generation over peak demand, significantly more comfortable than last year’s margin.
The forecast, at 6GW, is higher than National Grid’s previous estimates due to power generators without capacity market contracts indicating they will also be available to provide power.
As such, the SO said it is “confident that we have the right products and strategy in place to help us to balance the system, even under colder conditions than we have experienced in recent years”.
National Grid said that it expects there will be sufficient gas coming into the UK to meet demand. While Centrica is to close Rough, the UK’s largest storage facility, it will enable withdrawals over winter, and anticipates 1bn cubic meters (bcm) will be taken out.
The outlook states: ‘Total gas demand for the winter is forecast at 51 bcm, with a peak demand forecast for a 1-in-20 winter of 502mcm/day. We expect there to be sufficient gas available to meet this demand.
See the full outlook here.