Progressive politicians risk making a serious electoral miscalculation if they dilute climate ambition in response to populist right attacks, according to new analysis from The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) and Persuasion UK.
The research reveals that claims of a voter backlash against net zero are overstated, with political division among elites and distorted media narratives – not public opinion – posing the biggest risk to climate progress.
The British public remains consistently supportive of the UK’s 2050 net zero target – around 60% of people support the goal.
Crucially, climate policy is not driving voter defections. Only 4% of Labour-to-Reform switchers cite climate or net zero as a reason for changing their vote.
However, the analysis identifies a significant gap between public opinion and politicians’ perceptions. MPs are underestimating support for net zero, with Conservative MPs understating public backing by around 18 percentage points.
Researchers attribute this misperception to a rapidly polarising political environment, in which rhetoric on climate has become decidedly more negative since 2022 despite little change in voter attitudes.
The report also highlights the role of the media in amplifying a sense of backlash. IPPR and Persuasion UK analysis reveals that in 2025, online news coverage was 260 per cent more negative towards net zero than public sentiment.
Where attitudes have shifted, the report finds that this is more likely due to political allegiances changing rather than people shifting their views on net zero policies. Climate has fallen down the list of voter priorities amid cost-of-living pressures. In these contexts, political leadership cues matter more than ever.
Researchers warn that political caution can create a self-fulfilling backlash. If progressive leaders downplay climate commitments in response to populist rhetoric, they risk signalling that net zero is indeed politically problematic and miss out on the opportunities to demonstrate progress on an agenda with popular appeal.
IPPR sets out four priorities for progressives that will resonate with voters:
- Make a confident case for climate action:Net zero remains electorally safe territory, and retreating from it risks losing support, particularly among younger and progressive voters.
- Put climate impacts back on the agenda: highlighting real-world effects such as flooding and extreme heat increases public engagement and resolve.
- Future-proof progress:encourage cross-party voices to reduce polarisation.
- Build trust through fair policies: measures that reduce bills, support clean technologiesand involve communities directly can embed long-term support.
Becca Massey-Chase, principal research fellow and head of citizen engagement at IPPR, said, “Claims of a voter backlash against net zero have taken hold in Westminster, but the evidence shows they are largely a political myth. The British public continues to support climate action, and politicians risk fighting the wrong battle if they assume otherwise. The real danger is not public opinion – it is elite division and media narratives creating a false sense of risk.”
Sam Alvis, associate director of environment and energy security at IPPR, said, “Some politicians are deliberately trying to undermine public support for climate action. But the public still cares about protecting themselves and their children from the impacts of climate change. In the face of these constant attacks, policymakers must focus on making clean energy choices simple, affordable, and part of everyday life.”
